beware geeks bearing loans (31/07/1998)
If ever proof were needed of the validity of the Chaos Theory, the British economy provides it a-plenty. Just when it seemed that everything was going really well, with a fresh new government, a steadily improving housing market, a booming service sector and a general feeling of good-naturedness spreading to all parts of the community (except pub doorsteps at chucking-out time), suddenly it's all gone horribly wrong. Houses are being re-possessed, the strong pound is crippling exports and the manufacturing industry, and it seems that the only reason the service industry is doing so well is because of the near-blackmail arrangements in the Year 2000 and Euro-compliancy programming sectors.
So what's gone wrong? Sometimes it seems that when a butterfly breaks wind over Southern Asia, the Western world reaches for the air freshener. But this time, the transition from up to down was such a sudden one - happening, coincidentally, around the time of the World Cup - that it is tempting to blame a few individuals (No, not Beckham. Not this time, anyway). Do the financial editors of the national newspapers perhaps all get together for a round of golf and decide "Well, things have been going a little too well recently. Perhaps it's time for a change. Shall we?", before writing their columns the next day warning of doom and gloom? Who knows.
The last time we had a recession in this country, the PC industry was nowhere near as big as it is today. The 486 was the fastest thing around, and few people had computers at home. With so many jobs now depending on an industry that didn't really exist 20 years ago, we may be in for a bumpy ride. But should you, the PC buyer, really care? Possibly not. Unlike houses, computers have never gone up in value. You buy them, they depreciate, and a year or two later they're all but worthless. That's true whether there's a recession or not. It's unlikely that an economic crisis will drive the price of new computers either up or down, unless the recession becomes a truly world-wide one, affecting the manufacture of new components in every country.
For now, if you can afford a new PC, and you want/need one, then buy it. If you can't afford one, but are tempted by the 'Buy now, pay sooner than you think' offers, then perhaps a little caution is advisable. Debt has a habit of knocking on your door at the most inopportune moment, before wandering off with your television set, video, car and self-esteem.
Is that the time? Must dash or I'll be late for my game of golf.
